February 16, 2026 Trump's tariffs — from supreme to suppressed?

Last Wednesday, the United States House of Representatives voted to repeal Donald Trump's tariffs on Canadian goods. This was only possible because six Republicans also voted in favor of the repeal. This shows that Trump's arbitrary imposition of tariffs on imports, depending on his mood, is being increasingly questioned, even within his own party. However, the vote is only symbolic. It also needs to be approved by the Senate. Even if it passes there, which is likely since this chamber has already passed similar legislation, Trump will likely veto the bill. Then, Congress would need a two-thirds majority in each chamber to override the presidential veto.

It is the Supreme Court's decision which will be really significant for all tariffs imposed to date. The Court is currently considering whether President Trump has the authority, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), to impose tariffs at all. Even if the IEEPA authorizes the tariffs, the Court must decide whether delegating legislative authority to the president is constitutional. The case is still pending, but a decision could be issued as early as Friday. The outcome will have significant implications. It is estimated that nearly 35 million imports of goods subject to these tariffs have been made by more than 300,000 recorded importers, generating an estimated additional USD 130 billion in tariff revenue. If the Supreme Court affirms the lower courts' rulings, affected importers can reclaim the tariffs they have paid. Incidentally, it is the importers, not the foreign exporters, who pay the tariffs, despite Trump's claims to the contrary. We will not discuss further details here, such as the distinction between "reciprocal" and "trafficking" tariffs, nor will we speculate on the outcome of the court decision. However, it should be noted that many experts consider it highly likely that the court will overturn the additional tariffs imposed by Trump. Additionally, the odds on a betting platform favor a ruling against Trump’s tariffs by a margin of 68%.

Abolishing tariffs and eliminating the risk of new, arbitrary ones would eliminate the considerable uncertainty surrounding global trade. This would generate positive momentum for countries and companies worldwide, as well as stock markets. Countries that have been particularly hard hit to date, such as Switzerland, and companies with a high proportion of exports to the U.S., would benefit the most.

The situation for U.S. companies requires a closer look. Companies that have filed lawsuits (around 1,000) in U.S. courts, such as Costco Wholesale, will benefit and may receive refunds on customs duties. Companies that no longer have to pay high import duties, such as car manufacturers for steel, will see their costs fall. However, they will also face tougher global competition when protectionist barriers are removed. For the U.S. industry and economy overall, the elimination of tariffs will be positive. Uncertainty will be eliminated, investments will become predictable again, and the much-feared inflation push caused by high import prices is definitely off the table. Suspension of investments in the U.S., which were announced out of fear of tariff threats, could have a negative impact. However, since many of these investments were already planned (e.g., by Swiss pharmaceutical companies) and enforced foreign investments by tariff threats have not had much of an effect anyway, the impact will be limited.

Overall, if the Supreme Court were to declare the tariffs unlawful, it would have a very positive effect on the global economy, including the U.S. economy, and on the stock markets.